Fallout forensics hike radiation toll -Global data on Fukushima challenge Japanese estimates.

Cs-137 ~ 30X TEPCO Report :(

:(

Cesium-137 flow into sea 30 times greater than stated by TEPCO: report

http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20111029p2g00m0dm016000c.html

The amount of radioactive cesium-137 that flowed into the Pacific was probably nearly 30 times the amount stated by TEPCO in May, according to a French research institute. The Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety said the amount of the isotope that flowed into the ocean from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant between March 21 and mid-July reached an estimated 27.1 quadrillion becquerels. A quadrillion is equivalent to 1,000 trillion.

Of the amount, 82 percent had flowed into the sea by April 8, according to the study, which noted that the amount released as a result of the disaster triggered by the March 11 earthquake and tsunami was unprecedented.

(Mainichi Japan) October 29, 2011

SIGH...

The Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety said the amount of the isotope that flowed into the ocean from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant between March 21 and mid-July reached an estimated 27.1 quadrillion becquerels. A quadrillion is equivalent to 1,000 trillion.
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SIGH.. another poster that is enamored of large numbers without any understanding of perspective and what the numbers really mean. Shall we do the math?

The poster is correct that a quadrillion is equal to 1,000 trillion. The prefix for a trillion is "terra-". So the above figure is 27,100 TBq.

In another post, a poster claims the amount to be 36,000 TBq. Let me do the math for the larger value of 36,000 TBq.

You can find the relevant physics, as well as the relation between activity, lambda, and number of atoms in the "Developing the Decay Expression" and "Radioactive Decay Constant" sections of the following, courtesy of the Physics Department at Georgia State University:

http://hyperphysics.phy-astr.gsu.edu/hbase/nuclear/halfli2.html

36,000 TBq = 3.6e+04 * 1.0e+12 = 3.6e+16 inverse seconds

Half-life of Cs-137: t_1/2 = 30 yrs = 9.47e+8 sec

lambda = ln(2)/t_1/2 = 7.321e-10 inverse seconds

(lambda)N = 3.6e+16 inverse seconds

N = 3.6e+16 Bq / lambda

= 4.92e+25 atoms

= 81.6 moles ( since Avogadro's number is about 6.02e+23 atoms /mole)

= 11,200 gm ( since each mole is 137 gm, the atomic weight of Cs-137)

= 11.2 kg

= 24.6 pounds

Although it sounds like a lot, because of all the large numbers involved in units the poster evidently doesn't understand; when you calculate the amount in units that people are familiar with; it comes out to be less than 25 pounds.

Less than Candid

*
TEPCO has been less than forthcoming.

English: http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20111025p2a00m0na007000c.html
Japanese: http://mainichi.jp/select/today/archive/news/2011/10/24/20111025k0000m04...

TEPCO, the operator of the crippled nuclear power plant, had earlier submitted to a special House of Representatives committee largely blacked-out emergency operation manuals for the Fukushima nuclear facility. The manuals were in fact used when the Great East Japan Earthquake and ensuing tsunami struck the nuclear complex. On Oct. 24, NISA released part of an unedited manual after submitting it to the same lower house panel. The manual revealed the fact that there was no operational manual that envisioned a loss of all power sources needed to activate emergency condensers and back-up water injection devices to cool down nuclear reactors. The revelation highlights flaws in TEPCO's contingency plan in the event of a loss of power sources.

In September, TEPCO submitted to the lower house committee largely blacked-out manuals on the pretext of the need to protect nuclear security as part of anti-terrorism measures and intellectual property rights. NISA then ordered TEPCO to resubmit the manuals.

On Oct. 22, TEPCO said at a news conference, "After comparing the manuals, there was no problem with actual operations."

(Mainichi Japan) October 25, 2011

http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2008/mar/18/law.divorce1

"I am driven to the conclusion that much of her evidence, both written and oral, was not just inconsistent and inaccurate but also less than candid," the judge in the divorce, Mr Justice Bennett, ruled. "Overall, she was a less than impressive witness." Bennett said, "she only has herself to blame" "If, as she has done, a litigant flagrantly over-eggs the pudding and thus deprives the court of any sensible assistance, then he or she is likely to find that the court takes a robust view and drastically prunes the proposed budget." Bennett said he found "the wife's case as to her wealth in 1999 [when they met] to be wholly exaggerated".

Higher Radioactive Release

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/111025/full/478435a.html

Published online 25 October 2011 | Nature 478, 435-436 (2011) | doi:10.1038/478435a Geoff Brumfiel

News - Fallout forensics hike radiation toll - Global data on Fukushima challenge Japanese estimates.

The disaster at the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant in March released far more radiation than the Japanese government has claimed. So concludes a study1 that combines radioactivity data from across the globe to estimate the scale and fate of emissions from the shattered plant.

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/111025/full/478435a/box/2.html

The new analysis also claims that the spent fuel being stored in the unit 4 pool emitted copious quantities of caesium-137. Japanese officials have maintained that virtually no radioactivity leaked from the pool. Yet Stohl's model clearly shows that dousing the pool with water caused the plant's caesium-137 emissions to drop markedly (see 'Radiation crisis'). The finding implies that much of the fallout could have been prevented by flooding the pool earlier.

http://www.kantei.go.jp/foreign/kan/topics/201106/iaeahoukokushoe.html
The page you requested is not found.

133Xe (13 EBq)

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/28319/2011/acpd-11-28319-2011.pdf

Given the massive fuel damage that has been reported for all three cores, there is little doubt that the noble gas release fraction should be practically 100 %. The more interesting aspects here are the temporal and vertical distribution of the release, which determine atmospheric transport patterns, as well as how much 137Cs was set free into the atmosphere. Our first guess has been guided by the Japanese assessments and thus its total magnitude corresponds to: 100% of 133Xe (13 EBq) and about 2% (17 PBq) of 137Cs. However, we add another 9 PBq 137Cs from the spent fuel pool of unit 4 Releases

133Xe 100% release

4.2.1 Xenon-133

Total a posteriori 133Xe emissions are 16.7 EBq, one third more than the a priori value of 12.6 EBq (which is equal to the estimated inventory) and 2.5 times the estimated Chernobyl source term of 6.5 EBq (NEA, 2002). Thus, we can conclude that the inversion confirms the full release of the noble gas inventory of FD-NPP. Emissions cannot exceed 100% of the inventory, so this may indicate that our inversion overestimates the emissions. This could occur, for instance, by a broadening of emission peaks while retaining peak emission rates to match particularly high measured concentrations. Alternatively, a priori emissions may have really been too low. It is unlikely that the 133Xe inventories of the reactor units 1–3 were one third higher than estimated with ORIGEN. However, there is the possibility of additional releases from unit 5, depending on the time since when it was on cold shut-down when the earthquake occurred. Another possibility is that recriticality has occurred in one of the reactor units. Furthermore, noble gas releases may have occurred also at other Japanese NPPs shut down automatically after the earthquake and which may have suffered some structural damage

137Cs emission is 35.8 PBq

4.2.2 Caesium-137

The upper panel of Fig. 5 shows the a priori and a posteriori emissions of 137Cs. The total a posteriori 137Cs emission is 35.8 PBq, 34% more than the first guess emission (Table 3) and about 42% of the estimated Chernobyl emission of 85 PBq (NEA, 2002). Our total a posteriori emission is lower than the first estimate of 66 PBq published by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (2011) on 22 March, but considerably higher than the estimate of Chino et al. (2011) of 13 PBq. Both previous estimates were based on only few selected measurements. Our emission is in relatively good agreement with the Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (2011) estimate of 30 PBq caesium (including isotopes other than 137Cs) for the period 12–22 March.

Supplementary material related to this article is available online at:
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/28319/2011/acpd-11-28319-2011-...

66 PBq of C-137 ZAMG

66 PBq published by ZAMG

Our total a posteriori emission is lower than the first estimate of 66 PBq published by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (ZAMG 2011) on 22 March

considerably higher than the estimate of Chino et al. (2011) of 13 PBq

The upper panel of Fig. 5 shows the a priori and a posteriori emissions of 137Cs. The total a posteriori 137Cs emission is 35.8 PBq, 34% more than the first guess emission (Table 3) and about 42% of the estimated Chernobyl emission of 85 PBq (NEA, 2002). Our total a posteriori emission is lower than the first estimate of 66 PBq published by the Central Institute for Meteorology and Geodynamics (2011) on 22 March, but considerably higher than the estimate of Chino et al. (2011) of 13 PBq. Both previous estimates were based on only few selected measurements. Our emission is in relatively good agreement with the Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire (2011) estimate of 30 PBq caesium (including isotopes other than 137Cs) for the period 12–22 March.

http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/28319/2011/acpd-11-28319-2011.pdf

Supplementary material related to this article is available online at:
http://www.atmos-chem-phys-discuss.net/11/28319/2011/acpd-11-28319-2011-...

http://www.nature.com/news/2011/111025/full/478435a.html
http://www.nature.com/news/2011/111025/full/478435a/box/2.html