Fallout levels in Berkeley CA in bq/m2
Posted by BC 8/23
I have finally found the time to finish up a little project I have been working on. No doubt those of you who have paid a lot of attention to this Fukushima train wreck have seen maps that show levels of cesium deposition in the areas around the plant (and of course there are maps like that for Chernobyl as well). Well, I wanted to know how much “rain-out” cesium deposition Berkeley CA got in March-April, and so I did the math. Before the actual numbers, let me explain my methods and some of the caveats therein.
First, all activity levels are from the Berkeley lab. Rainfall numbers are from www.wunderground.com, and as there was no data for Berkeley, so I used the nearest location, Oakland.
Second, the rainfall data is only listed as per day, not per hour, and often the BRAWM team took multiple samples in a given day. So what I did was assign a percentage of each given day's rainfall to each sampling period, based purely on the number of hours sampled. So for example if on a given day sample A was taken from 01:00 to 7:00 and sample B was taken from 08:00 to 14:00, I would add the 6 hrs from A and the 8 hrs from B and end up with a total 14 hours of sampling time. If on that same day, there was .50" inch of rainfall, I assigned 43% (0.22") of the rainfall to sample A and 57% (0.29") to sample B. I realize that there is some innaccuracy in this (ie, it might've rained cats and dogs in sample A and very little in sample B), but it's the best way I could think of to do it (and this method does guarantee that all rainfall is accounted for). I also did arbitrarily add .10" of rain for the 4/6-4/7 sample, where there was no precip listed for Oakland but obviously BRAWM was able to take a sample.
Once the amounts of precipitation were assigned to the sampling periods measured by the team, I converted the inches of rainfall into litres/m2 (simply by multiplying the amount in inches by 25.4 to get litres per m2). Then I took the litres/m2 and multiplied it by the activity level for each of the cesium isotopes (found in the respective sample), which then shows me how much of each cesium isotope was deposited during each sampling period. Adding all the results from March and April together gave me rough numbers for the "wet deposition."
There is some inaccuracy inherent in my method, most of which is related to the rainfall data, but I'd guesstimate that the final numbers are within ~25%.
Cs-134 ~ 30bq/m2 Cs-137 ~ 34bq/m2 for Berkeley CA March-April 2011.
Bear in mind that wet deposition is by far the largest contributor to fallout levels, so this gives us a pretty good idea of how much came down. Several subsequent tests came back non-detect, so while there may have been extremely small amounts deposited since then, it wouldn’t add much to the total.


Kudos to you, BC! :-) Now what about Seattle?
Wow...very impressive, BC! Way to go. :-)
Now of course, given the fact that Seattle has a MUCH higher rainfall than Oakland/No. CA, and may be in more direct line of the Pacific Jet Stream from Japan the question remains: who is testing our soil here and how much Cesium, etc., etc., has been and will be deposited here?? Our children will be playing in this dirt, inhaling bits of it and no doubt ingesting bits of it as well in the days, months and years to come throughout their childhoods.
Anyone out there testing Seattle's environment? The EPA has yet to post any additional radiation results since March or April. Why not? Their silence is deafening.
Anyway, my hats off to you BC for your efforts! :-)
Thanks Seamom. It is nice to
Thanks Seamom. It is nice to know that my brain can work if I flog it.
It would be awesome if the guys at University of Washington would do some local testing in the same vein as UCBNE.
Another calculation, using topsoil
You're welcome. It is
You're welcome. It is interesting to see that the topsoil calculation matches my numbers pretty close.
Limited data Many more isotopes to account for Ty for this
That's interesting bc I have begun to think the first radiation map that was flying around the Internet in early march was not a fake although at the time it looked like a doomsday map and was discredited .well now with the release estimates being as high as two quadrillion per hour on march 15 this map may have been not as far fetched as it seemed in march .
Is there a way to equate your calculations to rads?
http://www.snopes.com/photos/technology/fallout.asp
The scare map @link
According to Other map I'm dead or soon to be
This deposition map correlates well to your calculations I believe.
http://cerea.enpc.fr/fr/fukushima.html
TDM- I did not understand
TDM-
I did not understand how to interpret the scale on that cerea map.
Can anyone clue me in?
And also, I doubt that you are soon to be dead from cesium if you are in the US...
Reading map
Bc on right side is the color scale it looks like west coast is in the 2.4 range
Log base 10
Mark- Do you have a notion
Mark-
Do you have a notion as to what level of Cs deposition is a cause for concern? I know that under 30kbq/m2 they did very little in Europe post-Chernobyl. Also, I saw that the Finns had determined that ~100kbq/m2 was correlated with a ~10% increase in cancers.
Using the linear no threshold model, would this mean that 10kbq/m2 could be expected to cause a 1% increase, and 1kbq/m2 to cause a 0.1% increase? I realize that a 0.1% or 1 % increase is not measurable (ie, lost in the noise), just asking about what the model predicts.
BC
LNT model
Sure Mark, here's the link
Sure Mark, here's the link (and I had a heck of a time finding it - the study is from Sweden, not Finland. Ehh, one Nordic country, same as the others, right :)?) -
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1732641/pdf/v058p01011.pdf
And the 11% tidbit -
" The excess relative risk was 0.11 per
100 kiloBecquerel/m2 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.20)."
Thanks for the K-40 info, I should have thought of that as a comparison...
"A cohort study was focused
"A cohort study was focused on the fallout of caesium-137 in relation to cancer incidence 1988–1996."
How can we factor in the presence of Caesium-134? I think for Chernobyl there was a 2:1 ratio for 137:134, so we should assume that the original deposition on those areas in Sweden was 150 KBq/m2 if we add both isotopes?
Thanks, BC. Interesting
Thanks, BC. Interesting article. Two things I noticed:
(1) The authors have done a tremendous job trying to tease our "confounding factors" from the epidemiological data, but they are still hesitant about their claims since they know that what they are claiming has not been seen in other studies. For example, their main conclusion is "Unless attributable to chance or remaining uncontrolled confounding, a slight exposure related increase in total cancer incidence has occurred in northern Sweden after the Chernobyl accident." Another interesting conclusion: "No clear excess occurred for leukaemia or thyroid cancer."
(2) You quoted it right that they found an 11% increase in risk (95% confidence interval is 3% to 20%) for every 100,000 Bq/m2. So these conclusions would mean roughly a 0.0033% increase in risk in our area. This is far down in the noise.
Mark [BRAWM Team Member]
So, how do you apply that
So, how do you apply that percentage increase to a real population, say San Francisco with 800,000 population?
Do you multiply the risk factor increase (.0033) directly by the population to arrive at an anticipated cancer increase, = 26.4 cancers?
This does not seem a correct application because each individual (theoretically) faces a .0033% increase in their risk of developing a cancer, over their lifetime.
Therefore, do we rather, apply the risk factor annually over the anticipated lifetime of the SF population, using something like the PY (person years) that Tondel used?
This one has me stumped.
When I get some time in the
When I get some time in the next couple of days I will work out the #'s and post what I think (FWIW).
BC 11/29
Swedish study 'Increase of regional total cancer incidence ...'
Hi Mark,
I looked at the numbers and logic and it looks like a .033 percent increase rate of incidence of to me. Using a linear relationship the incidence rate of .11 (or 11 percent) at 100,000 Bq/m2, 30 Bq/m2 equates to .00033 increase rate of incidence or .033 percent, yes ?
Second question, perhaps BC can answer: would you say that the fallout levels calculated here are at, above or below the likely average for the West Coast taken as a whole?
Red Mercury - There is a
Red Mercury - There is a scarcity of data here. I really do think that my numbers for Berkeley are pretty good at ~65bg/m2 combined Cs. I had done Boise before, and it came out to around 95 bq/m2, but I need to revisit that because it was based just on two EPA detections in March and BRAWM clearly picked up fallout though Mid-April. If it rained in Boise any time 4/1-4/20 or so there was likely some contamination, and we will never have a good rainfall concentration number since the EPA has no data for that time. The soil however can obviously still be tested.
My seat of the pants estimation is that if we look into April's weather, Boise probably did pick up enough to push it into the 150-200 bq/m2 range.
I am very interested in seeing soil testing for points further north, south, and east.
I really wish UW would start
I really wish UW would start monitoring rainfall and soil. So we could be facing a ten to fifteen percent increase in our risk for cancer in the northwest?
I don't see that at all in
I don't see that at all in the US. The paper in discussion correlated (and as Mark said, did not "prove") an 11% cancer increase at a Cs-137 surface deposition of 100kbg/m2.
If anyone can show a North American level even near that, a real world lab tested number for Cs-137, I will buy a hat and eat it. Anything over 1kbq/m2 would be shocking IMO.
Bear in mind we are talking about just Cs here
I am having my soil tested. Will post results here.
Derp. I deserve an F for my
Derp. I deserve an F for my reading comprehension skills. I didn't catch that we were discussing KBQ's. Thanks BC. Great thread BTW.
Copy that Mark. I had done
Copy that Mark. I had done the conversion for risk factor as well. Very small risk.
Here's a thing I would like to point out...though I am far from a fan of Busby, Caldicott, etc, these levels of exposure probably will kill some people. Probably less than plastic water bottles, doughnuts, etc. But still, some even in the US will probably get a cancer that they wouldn't have if Fukushima had not popped. Probably not me, or you, but it's impossible to know.
Alos, the risk in highly populated areas of Japan is by no means negligible. There'a bunch of numbers coming out showing ~30kbq/m2 in Tokyo suburbs - figure a 3% increase in a huge population base, this thing will likely kill thousands in Japan.
The problem I see with that
The problem I see with that is that the Tondel study in Sweden didn't include a study of water or food monitoring. How much of the increased risk of cancer in Sweden was the result of contaminated food or water sources? How different is the situation in Japan regarding that?
Eating & Drinking
Presumably, the people in the Tondel study did eat and drink, so while the measurement was based on Bq/m^2, it must also have, defacto, incorporated ingested and inhaled radiation as well. What we don't know (not that I know of) is what portion of the 11% increase in cancer is due to the elevated background levels or the elevated internal levels. I would guess it is a combination of the factors, but again, because other avenues of contamination were not controlled for, we don't know the contributing ratios of internal vs. external as related to the 11% increase. Keep in mind that females are about 40% more sensitive to radiation than males, and that young children are even more sensitive than this, so risk is not 11% across the board.
By the way, from what I have read, the ECRR model seems to the the better choice for making correllations of contamination to cancer risk. This model is correlated with actual data from Chernobyl, and thus is represents a more accurate model. See: http://www.euradcom.org/2011/ecrr2010.pdf