EURAD forecasts- in any way valid?
Ok, I know I am little late to the "plume forecast" party since I could tell from day one that the folks behind them were plugging in numbers they couldn't verify...kind of a garbage in, garbage out type situation. Mark posted on this a while back - http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/node/3164.
Still, Red Mercury's post in the bioaccumulation thread made me wonder if we might make some use of the qualitative nature of the maps. Here are the links for dry and wet depostion forecasted at a very high level of constant release (they were using 1/10 of Chernobyl's release per day, and current numbers out of TEPCO indicate about 1/8 Chernobyl initial release with way smaller subsequent releases. It would be surprising if the total atmospheric release is more than 25% of Chernobyl).
http://db.eurad.uni-koeln.de/prognose/data/alert/ddcs_hem_1h_72_1.gif
http://db.eurad.uni-koeln.de/prognose/data/alert/wdcs_hem_1h_72_1.gif
There is a tiny little yellow blip on the wet depostion forecast, looks like the high sierra to me. Interesting. I am thinking that two places one could find some hot spots would be the Sierras and maybe Boise ID (which got some pretty foul rain accoriding to EPA).
Thoughts anyone?
Something else to think
Something else to think about. Former Minister for Internal Affairs Haraguchi Kazuhiro has alleged that radiation monitoring station data was actually three decimal places greater than the numbers released to the public. http://japanfocus.org/events/view/100
If the Japanese radiation monitoring station data was indeed three decimal places greater than the numbers released, than “microsieverts” that were reported should have read “millesieverts”. As I understand it, a millesievert is 1000 times greater in radioactivity.
Now, remember those ‘worse case scenarios’ that the radiation plume forecasts were supposedly based upon. If the former minister Kazuhiro’s allegations are true, than guess what? The worst case scenarios predicted may well have been way under estimated... that is if NILU based its weather radiation plume forecasting projections on these same Japanese mis-reported radiation level numbers? To put it another way, if former minister Kazuhiro's allegations are correct, than actual radiation levels originating out of post earthquake/tsunami Fukushima Japan may have been 1000 times worse than what was previously reported. 1000 times worse! Holy smoke. All puns intended.
Chilling to say the least, if true!
As to the veracity of Mr. Kazuhiro's charge... We probably will never know, as his information sources may well have been derived from classified, insider information. Fukushima Gate?
Within 5-20 years, a healthy
Within 5-20 years, a healthy population with healthy bouncing babies and just as many young girls as young boys.... will be hard to fake.
Hard to know. Myself, I
Hard to know. Myself, I think on-the-ground numbers were fudged in Japan but I am feeling like 770,000 TBq original release numbers is pretty accurate. The issue is where that poop went, and lucky winner number one is northern Japan.
Interestingly, I looked at air filter results from the plant yesterday. Bear in mind they measured in bq/cm3, not m3, but all isotopes were ND. That's telling me that current atmospheric emissions are very low to zero. Here's to hoping that continues.
Well, here in Los Angeles,
Well, here in Los Angeles, it appears we are continuing to get intermittent elevated radiation readings. Additionally, Michael Collins (of the live monitoring EnviroReporter Radiation Station in West Los Angeles) measured radiation for two peaches, which he found at a local Santa Monica market, at sustained levels of 81 CPMs, or greater. The market's background radiation was said to be about 39 CPMs.
Two examples-
Taken from CPM radiation stats obtained from the Santa Monica/West Los Angeles Live Monitoring EnviroReporter Radiation Station. Normal background radiation levels for that area are reported to range from 42 CPMs – 46 CPMs.
Wednesday,
" 7/06/11
10:00 pm 10-minute INTERIOR average: 39.0 CPM*
9:45 pm 10-minute EXTERIOR average: 47.0 CPM
7:50 pm 10-minute INTERIOR average of a Radiation Station Teledyne Waterpik air cleaner and ionizer’s 3M filter – dust aggregate from filter (video recorded): 57.6 CPM which is 46.94% higher than preceding interior reading.
7:00 pm 10-minute INTERIOR average of a Radiation Station Teledyne Waterpik air cleaner and ionizer’s 3M filter – specific spot on filter (video recorded): 60.2 CPM which is 53.57% higher than preceding interior reading.
6:40 pm 10-minute INTERIOR average: 39.2 CPM
6:25 pm 10-minute EXTERIOR average: 43.4 CPM NORMAL
2:25 pm 10-minute INTERIOR average: 39.0 CPM
2:10 pm 10-minute EXTERIOR average: 40.2 CPM
8:45 am 10-minute INTERIOR average: 39.4 CPM
8:30 am 10-minute EXTERIOR average: 48.9 CPM "
***
Friday.
" 7/08/11
10:05 pm 10-minute INTERIOR average: 39.9 CPM*
9:50 pm 10-minute EXTERIOR average: 45.6 CPM
4:00 pm INTERIOR spot reading in Santa Monica market with approximate background of 39 CPM – Two peaches sustained 81 CPM and above or over two times background (208% of site background).
3:40 pm 10-minute INTERIOR average: 39.6 CPM
3:25 pm 10-minute EXTERIOR average: 47.0 CPM
1:05 pm 10-minute INTERIOR average: 39.6 CPM
12:45 pm 10-minute EXTERIOR average: 45.8 CPM NORMAL
8:45 am 10-minute INTERIOR average: 35.8 CPM
8:25 am 10-minute EXTERIOR average: 43.9 CPM NORMAL "
http://www.enviroreporter.com/radiation-station-stats/
Interesting if true! I
Interesting if true!
I thought CPM would severely underestimate contamination.
For one thing, radiationnetwork.com has been laughably low almost the entire time. For another thing, I thought it didn't do a good job picking up the emitters of concern.
If that all stands, those must be some seriously contaminated peaches. Where were they grown?
Where radioactive peaches in a Santa Monica market grown?
Have put in an inquiry. Haven't heard anything yet.
Tester of the peaches says
Tester of the peaches says does not know where radiated peaches found at a Santa Monica market were grown; but, as an educated guess might be California.
So, we are left guessing as to the peaches origin....
There were reports of
There were reports of "yellow snow" in the Sierras after the accident in March. There was yellow rain at the same time in Phoenix. I don't think contamination was confined to the high Sierras.