NHK Radiation Projections for Pacific: 4000 Kilometers within 1 year (Reported today)
.Top StoriesWorldPolitics & BusinessSociety & Others.Simulation model projects radiation diffusion
Researchers say radioactive substances leaked from the Fukushima Daiichi plant will reach ocean waters 4,000 kilometers away from the plant within a year of the nuclear accident.
Using a computer simulation model, Japan's science ministry predicted how the radioactive cesium 137 that leaked from the Fukushima plant will spread in the Pacific Ocean.
The computer image shows that, as of April of next year, cesium 137 will reach eastern waters around 4,000 kilometers away from the Fukushima plant.
The highest concentration is projected at 0.023 becquerels per liter -- that's about 14 times the normal level, but still only one-three-thousandth of safe limits.
3 years after the accident, the radioactive materials are forecast to diffuse further in waters north of Hawaii, lowering concentration levels.
The radioactive substances will reach the US west coast in 5 years. Seven years after the initial accident, the concentration level is predicted to be close to normal.
Masanao Nakano, a senior engineer at the Japan Atomic Energy Agency, says that in one year, the radiation concentration level will become so low that eating fish from even the most contaminated areas would pose little danger to health.
Pacific RAD-Map
Radioactivity survey ship leaves for Fukushima
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/01_18.html
A research ship, belonging to Tokyo University of Marine Science and Technology, left Toyoumi Wharf in Tokyo Bay on Friday morning to survey the spread of radioactive substances into the ocean from the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear plant. The ship is to arrive off Fukushima on Saturday and will continue its activities until July 8th. About 30 specialists in ocean observation and marine biology are onboard the ‘Umitaka-maru’.
In cooperation with a fisheries research organization and other groups, the ship will collect seafloor samples off Fukushima to study the impact of radioactive substances on fish and plankton. The research will focus on shellfish and sandworms on the seabed that are believed to be susceptible to radioactive materials.
Hope map is wrong
.
Here is a scary looking radiation map from that XIAMEN, June 16 (Xinhua) news story. I sincerely HOPE that it is incorrect. The rosy scenario of the OP is completely at odds with this scary map.
http://mychinaviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/d1975_fukushima-nucle...
http://mychinaviews.com/2011/06/china-dispatches-team-to-monitor-nuclear...
The SCARY map is reminicient of an old cold war movie.
On The Beach, directed by Stanley Kramer, (1959) featured: Gregory Peck (Captain Dwight Lionel Towers - USS Sawfish), Ava Gardner (Alcoholic Moira Davidson), Fred Astaire (scientist Julian Osborne) and Anthony Perkins (Royal Australian Navy lieutenant Peter Holmes). After a nuclear war, the last US nuclear submarine searches unsuccessfully for signs of life in the Northern Hemisphere. The Australian government arranges for its citizens to receive suicide pills and injections, so that they may choose to avoid prolonged suffering from the coming radiation sickness.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upg2eqNbF3w
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FRf-g9aSdfU
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=upg2eqNbF3w&feature=related
Australian remake Part 1:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wv_OJBBaF48&NR=1
China Radiation Monitoring
Perhaps the Chinese government will publish their radioactive data.
http://mychinaviews.com/2011/06/china-dispatches-team-to-monitor-nuclear...
XIAMEN, June 16 (Xinhua) — China’s State Oceanic Administration dispatched a marine monitoring team Thursday from Xiamen City, in China’s southeast Fujian Province, to monitor radiation in the west Pacific.
The aim of the mission is to get a better understanding of how nuclear radiation affects the marine environment.
Wang Fei, deputy chief of the State Oceanic Administration, said the mission will help China establish a radioactive alert system in the west Pacific.
The monitoring team consists of 40 people and will sail about 5,000 nautical miles in 30 days, according to the plan.
:)
:)
https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=67796
The need to understand the amount, type, and fate of radioactive materials released prompted a group of scientists from the U.S., Japan, and Europe to organize the first multi-disciplinary, multi-institutional research cruise in the northwestern Pacific since the events of March and April. A group of 17 researchers and technicians will spend two weeks aboard the University of Hawaii research vessel R/V Kaimikai-O-Kanaloa examining many of the physical, chemical, and biological characteristics of the ocean that either determine the fate of radioactivity in the water or that are potentially affected by radiation in the marine environment.
This site will chronicle their work on the June cruise and offers more information about the technology they will employ and radiation in the ocean.
https://www.whoi.edu/page.do?pid=68736
Daily Updates
Science crew and members of ship's crew who could make it on the back deck of R/V KOK entering Tokyo Bay. (Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution)
The signs of radiation that we’re looking for are, we expect, going to be extremely slight. In fact, at the moment we’re receiving a dose of radition that is noticeably lower than the one we were detecting on shore and indoors, and almost certainly far lower than what we experienced on the flight to Tokyo. We’re taking samples of water, air, and biota (mainly the lowest levels of the food chain) to test for a suite of more than a dozen different radionuclides. These natural and man-made radioactive elements include isotopes of potassium, uranium, and thorium that are always present in sea water as well as the telltale fingerprint of releases from Fukushima and Cold War nuclear weapons testing that show up in cesium-134 and -137 and the short-lived isotopes of iodine.
June 18
Home Again, Home Again
Measurements out to 19 miles
:)
The Japanese government and Fukushima plant owner, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), began measuring iodine and cesium isotopes in the ocean 10 days after the accident and have been monitoring the water around the reactors up to 19 miles (30 kilometers) from shore, where radiation levels have been highest.
http://www.global-adventures.us/2011/06/02/radiation-expedition-pacific/
Radiation: Expedition samples Pacific Ocean
A new 15-day scientific expedition aboard the University of Hawaii’s research vessel Kaimikai-O-Kanoloa will measure radioactive substances in the Pacific Ocean that leaked from the Fukushima nuclear power plant over the past months. “This project will address fundamental questions about the impact of this release of radiation to the ocean” said Vicki Chandler, Chief Program Officer, Science at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation.
The shipboard research team, which includes scientists from labs in the U.S., Japan, and Spain, will collect water and biological samples and take ocean current measurements in an area 120 by 120 miles (200 by 200 kilometers) offshore of the plant and further offshore along the Kuroshio Current.
The release of radioactivity from the partial meltdowns, hydrogen explosions and fires that began March 11 at the Fukushima plant and the runoff from the subsequent attempts to cool the reactors represents an unprecedented release of radiation to the ocean. The total amount of radioactivity that has entered the ocean as a result of this accident is not well understood, and until now, only limited assessment of the impacts on the ocean has been undertaken.
The Japanese government and Fukushima plant owner, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), began measuring iodine and cesium isotopes in the ocean 10 days after the accident and have been monitoring the water around the reactors up to 19 miles (30 kilometers) from shore, where radiation levels have been highest.
How hot is the Pacific water
How hot is the Pacific water and sediment near Fukushima?
Is it still getting hotter?
How hot is the groundwater under the plant?
Is the Japanese environment an open criticality excursion or uncontained breeder reactor?
Just how bad is this thing, when the data is classified.
where is the DATA
:(
So, where is the DATA?
:(
Radionuclide Concentration Maps
Sample analysis will be performed over several months, and the end product will be a set concentration maps for many different radionuclides obtained independently by several groups allowing for inter-comparison of analytical methods.
Link to story
Stony Brook Scientists Study Ocean Impacts Of Radioactive Contamination From Japan's Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant
Jun 8, 2011 - 10:01:23 AM
In addition to bringing warm tropical waters north, the Kuroshio Current transports organisms long distances and is an important migration route for a variety of commercially important marine organisms in various stages of their life cycles. Biological samples and measurements, among the first to be collected offshore, will be gathered using a variety of filters and nets in an effort led by SoMAS’s Dr. Nick Fisher, a biologist with interest and experience in studying the impacts of exposure to long-lived radionuclides on marine organisms, especially plankton.
Fisher’s team will focus on phytoplankton and zooplankton at the base of the food chain, as well as the juveniles and adults of key fish species to determine the extent to which radionuclides released from the Fukushima plant are being accumulated in these organisms. “Currently, we do not know the extent to which some of these radionuclides have been bio-accumulated and passed up the local food chains, “said Fisher. “This is obviously of interest, since the principal concern about the dispersal of radionuclides in the ocean stems from the fact that they can potentially be toxic to marine organisms or even humans who consume seafood, and the potential for toxicity is dependent on the extent to which radionuclides are bioconcentrated in marine organisms.”
All of the samples collected by Fisher and his colleagues will be analyzed using the most sensitive techniques and tools in the world, which provide a more detailed picture of where radioactivity is and where it traveled, and to detect radiation above background levels, including radionuclides in marine organisms. Sample analysis will be performed over several months, and the end product will be a set concentration maps for many different radionuclides obtained independently by several groups allowing for inter-comparison of analytical methods. Scientists associated with the study note that these early field data will expand understanding of how radioactive pollutants travel through the ocean and the extent to which they enter marine food chains. To fully understand the long-term significance of their presence in these food webs will, however, require considerable additional research over a number of decades. The field work underway now marks a start.
Let's take a peak
:(
So, who is directly funding this Woods Hole Oceanographic study?
Let's have a peek at the data.
What are the radionuclide concentrations relative to depth/altitude?
An interesting article about
An interesting article about impact of radiation on fish and other life forms.
http://www.pwrc.usgs.gov/infobase/eisler/chr_29_radiation.pdf
Same value as plume forecasts
At the most, these forecasts provide the same info as the plume forecasts. And that's just the timing of it reaching here. The amounts, as has been pointed out in this thread, are only guesses at this point.
BASELINE & Comparisons
What are the baseline (initial) radionuclide concentrations and the start date?
These theoretical oceanic radionuclide projections would be more plausible if:
1] The mathematical assumptions, models, algorythim, program, and initial oceanic radionuclide concentrations are published.
2] The starting date for the computer modeling projections is published
3] The present radionuclide values are compared to the computer projections for today
4] Japan allowed Non Government Organizations, such as Greenpeace, to take samples and publish results
5] The popular press article provided some reference to
6] Japan’s earlier radionuclide disclosures had been candid
Where's the Beef?
Curious:
Was this merely a press release, or is there a published substantive academic paper actually tracking the Fukushima radionuclides in the Pacific Ocean?
What are the parameters of the paper?
What tracking instruments have been deployed?
What are the radionuclide concentrations and Alpha, Beta, Gamma & Neutron emissions: above, at and below sea level?
A computer simulation, without measurement correlation, would be utterly braindead.
URL Link Please
SCOOPED!
Will the OP please provide the original link.
A cursory search of NHK and Google, with various phrases does not turn up the story.
Is this UCB post, a world exclusive?
Imbecile.
Imbecile.
He really thought he was on
He really thought he was on to something there. Very telling.
I'm not the OP but this
I'm not the OP but this really wasn't that hard to find
http://www3.nhk.or.jp/daily/english/24_37.html
this research is nice, but
this research is nice, but unless you know how much radiation has really been leaked so far, how much continues to leak every day, and how much MORE radiation will be leaked in the future, and on what date, it's futile to predict what the ocean will look like on the west coast 5 years from now.
I really respect this post from the OP
I really respect this post from the OP as Fukushima Fallout in our US West
Coast hydrologic/water cycle is an issue which anyone who claims to be
interested in 'Public Health' should be very concerned about.
As regards the situation, it's true that specific and accurate predictions
down to Bq/L may not be possible given the vast amounts of radiation as
well as seawater one must account for, as well as all other variables
involved.
However, That doesn't seem to have stopped 'Pro Nuclear Lobbyists' or BRAWM
Team members and certainly not 'anonymous posters' on this forum before,
when they have downplayed the seriousness of the current situation as well
as future repercussions.
When it comes to downplaying the situation- vast variables seem to be of
'no concern'.
Such uncertainty seems to only be an issue upon 'erring on the side of
caution'. That is very interesting, especially in light of the
'unprecedented Nuclear Meltdown disaster' offered up in the form of
'Fukushima'.
It is not 'futile' at all to consider the repercussions we face and act in
a preventative manner on behalf of Public Health.
There is much we know, upon which we can act:
_We know that the vast amounts of radioactive water in the spent Fuel Pools
as well as the additional seawater utilized to attempt to cool the
meltdowns has been dumped into the Pacific Sea...
_We know that the seawater used to cool the meltdowns, upon evaporation has
left large deposits of salt which very likely continue to be vaporized and
introduced into the atmosphere...
_We know that the explosions, be they hydrogen or partial fission
explosions, rained down on all the wreckage which was drawn out to sea by
the Tsunami as well as the sea itself...
_We know that all of the wind currents and Ocean currents which have
received radioactive injection move (East) in the direction of the West
Coast...
_Therefore we know that the radiation is on it's way and that there will be
consequences to our air, soil and water and therefore our food chain and
ultimately 'us'...
Anyone who claims that it is not possible or productive to weigh these
matters cannot 'credibly' claim to be concerned with 'Public Health'.
That is one of the confusing matters of this forum and many of BRAWM'S
statements- such statements do not always seem to line up with the interest
of Public Health.
Perhaps therein lies the 'credibility problem' many including myself have
mentioned?
I'm guessing the one line
I'm guessing the one line personal attacks are more your speed? You guys are getting desperate.Pathetic
Sorry Leo, the above was not
Sorry Leo, the above was not directed at you. There was another post here that appears to have been removed (Thanks Mods!).
Additional claims
.
If more losses emerge, additional claims will be made.
http://mdn.mainichi.jp/mdnnews/news/20110622p2g00m0dm023000c.html
A federation of seafood processing firms in Ibaraki Prefecture on Tuesday demanded about 1.85 billion yen in damages from Tokyo Electric Power Co. The damages for three months from March include about 1.14 billion yen covering such losses as costs for disposal of processed seafood products rejected by markets and retailers. The remainder is for radiation measurement and leave compensation. Involved in the claim are 159 firms and two cooperatives. If more losses emerge, additional claims will be made.
In waters off northern Ibaraki Prefecture neighboring Fukushima Prefecture where the nuclear plant is located, fishers have voluntarily refrained from catching small fish in which higher-than-allowable levels of radioactive substances were detected in early April. This development has discouraged retailers from selling processed seafood products from Ibaraki Prefecture.
Alaska Fishing Losses Emerge
The Alaska fishing industry is a 'dead man walking' thanks to TEPCO, GE, Hitachi et al. Losses are about to skyrocket; and who's to blame?
http://www.minyanville.com/dailyfeed/alaskas-investment-in-salmon-industry/
http://www.adn.com/widgets/salmon_graphics.pdf
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/05/world/americas/05salmon.html
Alaska's commercial salmon fishermen caught 169 million fish this year--one of the largest harvests since the state became a state.
In all, the season brought in $533.9 million--the most in 18 years
Testing Fukushima Seafood
Food products from the areas near the Fukushima nuclear facility, including seafood, are also to be tested by FDA before they can enter the U.S. food supply.
http://assets.opencrs.com/rpts/R41751_20110405.pdf
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41751.pdf
Effects of Radiation from Fukushima Daiichi on the U.S. Marine Environment
Eugene H. Buck Specialist in Natural Resources Policy
Harold F. Upton Analyst in Natural Resources Policy
April 15, 2011
Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R41751
Currently, it appears that radioactive contamination of seafood from the recent nuclear disaster in Japan is not a food safety problem for consumers in the United States. According to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), the damage to infrastructure in Japan has limited food production and associated exports from areas near the Fukushima nuclear facility. Food products from the areas near the Fukushima nuclear facility, including seafood, are also to be tested by FDA before they can enter the U.S. food supply.
Based on computer modeling of ocean currents, debris from the tsunami produced by the Tohoku earthquake is projected to spread eastward from Japan in the North Pacific Subtropical Gyre. In three years, the debris plume likely will reach the U.S. West Coast, dumping debris on California beaches and the beaches of British Columbia, Alaska, and Baja California. Although much of the radioactive release from Fukushima Daiichi is believed to have occurred after the tsunami, there is the possibility that some of the tsunami debris might also be contaminated with radiation.
Spit it out!
;(
So, WHERE is the seafood radionuclide DATA? USA taxpayers are, no doubt, once again spending a bundle, to 'bail out' General Electric. Americans have been subjected to a massive radionuclide storm. We have skin in the game.
By my lights the USA citizenry has a 'need to know'.
Spit it out!
"... Seafood products from the areas near the Fukushima nuclear facility, are to be tested by FDA before they can enter the U.S. food supply."
Yes by all means where is it
Yes by all means where is it ? Spit it out, we are not supposed to know I guess.