This just in: Estimate of release of radioactive materials officially more than doubled!
And I'm sure they'll eventually be forced to double it one more time and then we'll finally know that the release has been more than Chernobyl. And that's not counting what was released into the ocean and groundwater, which should way surpass anything that's been before because the cores have melted and can't be effectively cooled in that state.
Source:
Change in release estimate
NISA's revised radiation figure released on Monday is likely to fuel criticism of the initially slow and vague flow of information from the government and plant operator Tokyo Electric Power Company. The new estimate is closer to that of Japan's independent Nuclear Safety Commission which had initially estimated a release at 630,000 terabecquerels in the first month after the tsunami knocked out reactor cooling
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/japan/2011/06/08/305506/Japan-set.htm
Some perspective- Chernobyl
Some perspective-
Chernobyl released 5,200,000 terabecquerels into the atmosphere.
Current estimate for the first and worst week of FK is 770,000 terabecquerels. I would quesstimate that the total is maybe 2 or three times that, so let's call it 1,500,000 or 2,000,000 terabecquerels.
I tried to find a number/estimate for atmospheric testing, but was unable to.
Where do you get these
Where do you get these numbers from? All I can find is 1.8 Million Terabecquerel for Chernobyl . Source: http://ecocentric.blogs.time.com/2011/04/11/what-does-fukushima’s-new-“level-7”-status-mean/
Presumably the folks at the Time have done their research? But please show us if you have solid references to back up your claim or 5.2 Million TBq.
"All of the noble gases,
"All of the noble gases, including krypton and xenon, contained within the reactor were released immediately into the atmosphere by the first steam explosion.
55% of the radioactive iodine in the reactor, containing about 1760 PBq or 400 kg of I-131, was released, as a mixture of vapor, solid particles, and organic iodine compounds.
Caesium (85 PBq Cs-137[88]) and tellurium were released in aerosol form.
An early estimate for fuel material released to the environment was 3 ± 1.5%; this was later revised to 3.5 ± 0.5%. This corresponds to the atmospheric emission of 6 t of fragmented fuel.[87]
-----Total atmospheric release is estimated at 5200 PBq.[89)"
Via wikipedia's Chernobyl page. A PBq is 10X15, vs a TBq beaing 10X12, so 5200 PBq - 5,200,000 Tbq.
If you care to fiddle with conversion, Mark suggested www.wolframalpha.com.
But we still don't have a
But we still don't have a total number for the TOTAL contamination/release by Fuk. THis new number is still just a partial amount.
And now, fukushima II will be dumping radioactive water in the ocean. How many other plants in Japan are leaking that we don't know about?
New estimate is for first six days
So figure that into your guesstamates .
Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) now says it believes 770,000 terabecquerels escaped into the atmosphere in the first six days — compared to its earlier estimate of 370,000 terabecquerels.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/asia/japan/2011/06/08/305506/Japan-set.htm
Japan’s government in April raised the severity rating of the Fukushima crisis to the highest on an international scale, the same level as the Chernobyl disaster in 1986. The station, which has withstood hundreds of aftershocks, may release more contamination than Chernobyl before the crisis is contained, Tepco officials have said.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-18/tepco-misleading-public-over-nu...
So I draw my guesstamates from these news articles I expect releases to surpass chernoble if tepco has indicated this is a possibility .from past observations then it has occurred. maybe a large portion is in the contaminated water let's hope
Also figure in the three million gallons tepco dumped in ocean already to your guess.
I'd encourage everyone to
I'd encourage everyone to watch the excellent documentary, "The Battle of Chernobyl":
http://topdocumentaryfilms.com/the-battle-of-chernobyl/
Watching Soviet soldiers shovel hyper-radioactive waste (enough to make a camera get "spots" during filming) off the destroyed reactor with improvised lead body armor will always stick in my mind. Each man was allowed only a couple of minutes to work; another crew would take their place instantly. And on it went, two shovel-fulls at a time.
Dozens of the USSR's finest helicopter pilots were pulled from Afghanistan and sent on missions to drop water directly over the meltdown. They were dead in weeks.
The USSR did what Japan cannot, that is, conscript tens of thousands of people and force them to work in suicidal conditions. I fear that the Japanese situation is much, much worse and that it will require a larger sacrifice.
Can a free society ask tens of thousands of citizens to either commit suicide or shorten their lives radically? I pray that we won't have to find out, but I bet that we do.
God help Japan.
You would think they would
You would think they would build these things so deep underground decomissioning them would consists of blowing them in place. Anyway here are a few articles for those interested on a couple perspectives about the net energy a nuke plant produces over its life cycle.
http://nuclearinfo.net/Nuclearpower/WebHomeEnergyLifecycleOfNuclear_Power
http://www.stormsmith.nl
"Can a free society ask tens
"Can a free society ask tens of thousands of citizens to either commit suicide or shorten their lives radically?"
Excellent question. Clearly, the answer is no. Given this is true, then what? Well, we have the oldsters who have volunteered for suicide duty at Fukushima. Pretty sad, and failing.
One wonders what this says about modern society, our liberal governments, our mores. How have we failed so? Katrina, the GOM, Fukushima, ongoing flooding in MO, and on and on. One must admit that govs of every form and stripe are failing huge. I suppose that centralized command and control is failing everywhere and all at once.
This is like watching a house burn to the ground while its owners fiddle with lawn ornaments in the back yard.
I agree with you.... a free
I agree with you.... a free society can't force its citizens to march into breach by gun point and still have the foundation of freedom. However, an honest government dealing with its citizens with facts and the truth could ask people to step forward to volunteer. And, yes, I think people would do it to save their nation. Its no different than a volunteer soilder placing their life in danger on the battlefield....in this case, the war and the battle is a runaway nuclear event. Maybe I am just wishing for the best of humankind.
we force people in the
we force people in the military to give up their lives all the time. Have you people not been watching the news and noticed how many soldiers have died in the last year in our wars of aggresion against other nations? Why is THAT moral, but asking soldiers to put their lives on the line to stop a catastophe like this somehow IMMORAL? I'm sorry, but I think just the opposite.
Didn't they estimate the
Didn't they estimate the releases by early April in something between 370,000 and 630,000 terabecquerels "with a considerable margin of error"? How are 770,000 terabecquerels double of that?
"The total amount of radioactive material discharged from the plant from March 11 to early April was estimated between 370,000 and 630,000 terabecquerels, according to government sources.
The commission, however, said the figures were estimates only, "with a considerable margin of error." Radiation levels around the six-reactor complex have been slowly falling, it said.
(Apr. 25, 2011)"
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20110424dy04.htm
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20110424dy04.htm
http://search.japantimes.co.j
http://search.japantimes.co.jp/cgi-bin/nn20110607a2.html
NISA on Monday more than doubled its estimate of the radioactive material ejected into the air in the early days of the Fukushima nuclear crisis to 770,000 terabecquerels.
Early days is so vague any real time frame reported .this is bad news but I expected it so not surprised I expect data over coming years to get worse as well.
Japan's Nuclear and
Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency today (6/6/2011) was addressing the amount of radiation released into the atmosphere during the "first week" after the earthquake/Fukushima disaster crisis. Originally, radiation released into the atmosphere for the "first month" was estimated to be about 370,000 terabecquerels (and you are noting, and on up to 630,000 terabecquerels for the first month). Today, however, the Japan Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency is saying that 770,000 terabecquerels were released for the first week alone. Again, that is for the first week alone: 770,000 terabecquerels of radiation were said to have been released into the atmosphere!
In addition, the trace
In addition, the trace amounts of plutonium detected outside No. 1 nuclear reactor that previously were said to have come from prior weapons testing, are now being confirmed to have come directly from Tepco's damaged Fukushima No. 1 nuclear reactor itself, according to Japan's nuclear safety agency today. (6/6/2011, as reported by Kyodo News)
http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/06/95542.html
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As one Japanese radiation expert said, finally we appear to be getting closer to the truth about Fukushima, as the Japanese government/agencies and Tepco, itself, release bits of news-- piece by piece.
Oh my gosh, I wish people
Oh my gosh, I wish people would go on the streets to revolt against this, instead of only against health insurance, medicare, against women's rights, against homosexual rights, education, etc.
This country really needs a rational-minded analogue of the tea party movement.
So well said, speaking for
So well said, speaking for so many of us quietly losing hope.
Are you asking for the 2-5%
Are you asking for the 2-5% of intelligent, community minded, forward thinking Americans to take the wheel from the self-interested 1% that run most of the show? I would love to see that.
But then there's the 95%, most of whom identify with and nearly worship the 1% (who play them like a violin) - think Celebrity Apprentice. Most Americans are selfish and ignorant and on the bread and circus kool-aid. Thus, fail.
I AM asking that! Real
I AM asking that! Real change is very possible when powered by desperate ambition and belief.
"Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world. Indeed, it is the only thing that ever has." ~Margaret Mead
“The era of
“The era of procrastination, of half-measures, of soothing and baffling expedients, of delays, is coming to a close. In its place we are entering a period of consequence.”
-Winston Churchill, November 1936