Are you guys suprised that this is dragging on so long?
Hi team, first of all, thank you so much for all of this information and data. Its so great to have somewhere to get real, up-to-date facts on local levels. My question is, given that its already mid-May and it seems like the problems at the reactors in Japan are far from resolved, do you have any idea how long this crisis could continue? How long will Fukushima keep releasing radiation into the air and water? I was reading through your FAQs and they seemed to imply that at some point in the past you thought that levels would become undetectable by mid-April. I get the sense that this is in fact unchartered territory and experts in the field are surprised that the crisis is dragging on. I'm pregnant and have a young child, and I'm increasingly concerned.
There was some discussion
There was some discussion from another post that covers this. I've
copied the link to that post as well as some relevant text that also
includes the BRAWM team's (Mark's) responses.
I will say this, in the last air sample, there was on iodine-131. And
VERY low levels of cesium isotopes, which are approaching their
newer/lower minimum detectable activity. And the last 4 rain samples
detected nothing. The last milk result had no iodine-131 and very low
levels of cesium, which are also showing a decreasing trend.
The California Department of Public Health hasn't detected anything in
the air since their 4/14 report, which were samples taken in several
cities from 4/6-4/9. They hadn't detected anything in milk for the last
3 milk reports. But, they dected iodine and cesium in the 5/16 report.
But, those reports pretty much mirrored the latest BRAWM report.
http://www.nuc.berkeley.edu/node/3916
Continued Detection of Radionuclides
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 2011-05-12 05:51.
I apologize if this has already been addressed. However, I seem to recall that the BRAWM team anticipated that the various radionuclides for which data is being reported would not likely be detectable by the middle of April. I wanted to find out if Mark or anyone else on the BRAWM team is surprised that Iodine-131, Cesium-137, and Cesium-134, which was not detected in the April 30th through May 2nd sample but was detected in the latest sample, are still being detected at this point. Also, what do you believe is the most likely cause of the continued detection of these radionuclides at this time? Thank you in advance for your assistance!
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Longer/Larger Samples
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 2011-05-12 06:09.
I'm not on the BRAWM team (although I feel like it at this point), but I guess their response *could* be that they aren't far off of their non-detectable statement. As they've stated, because of the declining levels in air, they are having to take larger samples just to get above their MDA. Through mid-April, they were taking air sample sizes of anywhere between 1.22 and 4.7 million liters. Beginning 4/22, it went to almost 8 million liters. The last sample was 1.54E+07 or 15 million liters. So, they are "chasing" the detections. If they had stayed at their original sample sizes, they probably wouldn't be detecting anything. The Calif.
Dept of Public Health stopped detecting I-131 in early April because of
their MDA.
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Yes
Submitted by bandstra on Thu, 2011-05-12 06:14.
Thanks, Anonymous. You beat me to it.
I will also add that we now have better calculations for our detectability limits. Our original estimates were a bit higher, which led to the mid-April estimate.
Mark [BRAWM Team Member]
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Thank you, Mark and
Submitted by Anonymous (not verified) on Thu, 2011-05-12 06:26.
Thank you, Mark and Anonymous, for the responses. Do you have a revised estimate on when you think we may not see any of these radionuclides detected based on everything you know now? Also, does the recent news posted this evening that the fuel rods in the No. 1 reactor are fully exposed have any impact on this? Here is a link to an article posted on Bloomberg this evening: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-12/japan-suffers-setback-at-fukush.... Once again, thank you in advance for your assistance!
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Extrapolating from our
Submitted by bandstra on Thu, 2011-05-12 18:00.
Extrapolating from our recent data and current detection limits, all of the isotopes should be undetectable by around 5/12-5/15. There is already no I-131 in the sample we are currently counting (5/6-5/10).
Although news is coming out that fuel rods have been exposed, since the reactors have cooled down I would not expect any further major releases from Japan.
Mark [BRAWM Team Member]
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Oh thank you. I looked
Oh thank you. I looked through the other posts but didn't see this exact one. Very helpful.
anyone?
anyone?