"154 terabecquerels per day as of April 5" - please post this related Plume Forecast
"154 terabecquerels per day as of April 5," according to data released by the Cabinet Office's Nuclear Safety Commission on Saturday. (April 25,2011)
Why have there been no plume forecasts based on the NSC data? Or if those forecast exist, where are they???
Please plug in this data at the front end of the plume forecast and plot the results, ASAP. Then let us decide what is safe or not.
BTW, it was your UCB professor from Nuclear engineering that publicly said not even Iodine-131 would make it to the the West Coast from Fukushima. Please do what you can to regain our trust in you.
Sincerely
MLH
Maybe because the amount is
Maybe because the amount is relatively small to the huge amounts of radiation that were previously released?
150 terabecquerel is about 10^14 Becquerel. So far Fukushima has released around 10^21 Becquerel, which is 10 Million times more than the daily emissions you're mentioning, or as much as 50,000 Hiroshima bombs combined.
Plume model input data questions
I would be interested to know how you arrived and 10^21 Becquerel released from Fukushima to date. I have not heard of any realistic calculations or even measurements for anything like that. If you have some way to back that number up I'll be glad to pass it on.
The plume models of course are designed to show daily changes and forecasts. Your release total can not be applied to daily forecast #'s.
The plume forecast in March and April appear to be based on 1 terabecquerel per day not 154 terabecquerel's per day, which at least was measured by NIC.
Many of us are tired of numbers being thrown around with little or no basis and changed at anytime according to someones feelings or whim or fear.
I would like to see a plum model that displays the input data so we cange judge its accuracy better, knowing what some of us know.
I apologize for giving the
I apologize for giving the wrong number. I misremembered by a few orders of magnitude (confused peta with tera for a moment). The likely emission so far is a couple million terabecquerel, i.e. 10^18. Reports from a couple weeks ago are numerous on the web, but most of them are sourced by the Japanese nuclear commission=goverment, which is likely underestimating the true emissions (according to ZAMG, which you can google as well) by an order of magnitude. Check out this link e.g. for the numbers made public: http://english.kyodonews.jp/news/2011/04/84888.html
In any event, you can see that this is 4 orders of magnitude higher than the present daily emissions.
And the comparison to
And the comparison to Hiroshima is indeed 50,000 boms equals 1 Fukushima, and 1 Fukushima equals about 24 Chernobyls', with about 25% of that already released, i.e. about 6 Chernobyls so far, assuming that only reactor 1 has completely molten.
154 TBqs and other figures
I'm sorry but your numbers do not seem to add up at all. 154 TBqs is higher than any other published data that I can find. There is no evidence anywhere that I can find any remote comparison to Hiroshima magnitudes. And your comparison to Chernobyl is also absurd, with all due respect. You have shown zero references for your numbers and comparisons. I don't think you are serious at all about what you say.
Not that guy, but here is an
Not that guy, but here is an article from Yomiuri citing sources from the Nuclear Safety Commission of Japan:
"Radioactive material was being released into the atmosphere from the plant at an estimated rate of 154 terabecquerels per day as of April 5, according to data released by the Cabinet Office's Nuclear Safety Commission on Saturday. "
"The total amount of radioactive material discharged from the plant from March 11 to early April was estimated between 370,000 and 630,000 terabecquerels, according to government sources."
http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20110424dy04.htm
I'm no expert, but let's try some calculations.
If we get this 370,000-630,00 total emissions and divide it by 25 days (considering March 11-April 5) we get around 14,800-25,200 terabecquerels per day (considering uniform emissions, which is a bit absurd, considering they must have been much higher when the buildings were exploding and things like that)
In short, compared to the first 25 days and assuming uniform emissions until April 5 in which they were 154 TBq, the releases per day had been reduced to at least 0,6% - 1% of what they were.