BRAWM - what is your opinion on status of plant
Hi BRAWM,
Given the news over the last day or so about the meltdown in reactor 1 and the leaning of reactor 4 do you feel that there is an increased risk of new explosions - or is this impossible to tell?
It would be good to hear a scientists opinion on how this looks going forward.
Many thanks for everything you are doing.
I am the OP. I understand
I am the OP. I understand that as scientists you cannot get involved in any speculation about what could happen in the future however I watched a really interesting youtube clip with 3 UC Berkeley physicists recently. In this clip it was discussed how you/your department had regular contact with the Japanese government and also contact with a spokesperson from TEPCO. I was hoping with your insider knowledge you could offer an insight about the status of the plant.
Thanks again for all your hard work.
Well, BRAWM does not have
Well, BRAWM does not have this contact, but yes we do have faculty that are advising both NRC and the Japanese government through our colleagues at the University of Tokyo. Unfortunately, there is so much going on with commencement, finals, and conferences, that we have not had an internal department meeting about recent results. I know that TEPCO is beginning to release more data that will be the subject of an investigation in the future to piece together the failure modes. This is an extremely important task and Berkeley will be one of many institutions that will be analyzing this data. Patience is required, even if we had all of the data, it would take months of analysis to understand it fully.
People will be sick and
People will be sick and dying by the time everyone has analyzed the data.
Not to be flippant, but...
...This is, in fact, what I have always expected to be the case. Because, honestly, that's the way this sort of thing usually goes: The ascertaining of causality of bad outcomes, almost by definition, follows the OCCASION and APPREHENSION of those bad outcomes.
Take cigarettes. When did the U.S. Surgeon General first issue a public-health warning about the potential dangers and even lethality of the chemicals used in the manufacture of cigarettes? Only after numerous studies had been performed indicating a direct correlation between long-term cigarette smoking and lung cancer (and other illnesses).
Before that, before "hard evidence" existed and had a chance to be thoroughly vetted, documented, reviewed, and even contradicted or debunked, it was merely supposition -- and such supposition, even when constructively intended and accurate, is a dangerous thing.
I am convinced that we will NEVER know the true, total extent of Fukushima and its bad effects -- and that it will take years, perhaps decades, to ascertain with any degree of reliability even the slightest fraction of the reality of this event. Remember that we still don't have our hands or heads fully around Chernobyl, a quarter-century later. Or ITS effects.
Rick Cromack.
Allen, Texas
Many thanks for your
Many thanks for your response Dr Chivers.
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I would also be interested
I would also be interested in hearing BRAWM teams opinions....
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