Air results update
5/11 (9:25pm): Air results were updated with one measurement from 5/2-5/6. I-131, Cs-134, and Cs-137 were all detected, but they all continue to decline.
Mark [BRAWM Team Member]
Search
5/11 (9:25pm): Air results were updated with one measurement from 5/2-5/6. I-131, Cs-134, and Cs-137 were all detected, but they all continue to decline.
Mark [BRAWM Team Member]
Quick question...
"Results Log
5/11 (9:25pm): Air results were updated with one measurement from 5/2-5/6. I-131, Cs-134, and Cs-137 were all detected, but they all continue to decline."
Cs-134 ticked UP just a smidge, though, correct? (From 7.4e-09 on April 27th, the last above-MDA detection, to 8.0e-09 on May 2.)
I would assume though, since cesium-134 has a two-year half-life, that we can expect a VERY gradual decline there, marked by the occasional, nominal rise -- though, even with it continually being dispersed and "washed out" of the atmosphere, IF continued emissions are occurring from Fukushima, perhaps we're nearing some sort of plateau...?
You rock, BRAWM. Nuf sed.
Rick Cromack.
Allen, Texas
You know, Rick, I noticed the Cesium uptick too and worry...
When it is reported that all levels are continuing to decline but the actual figures show an uptick in the air.
This is disconcerting as it seems to be a downplaying when downplaying the results is not called for and is inaccurate (if just slightly) - it undermines credibility, unfortunately.
Also - IF a radiocesium isotope has a shorter hald life and is INCREASING somewhat, isn't that an indication of ongoing releases? Or is something else at work (like dispersion and variability of conatmination in ongoing plumes).
When it is stated that BRAWM expects there to be NO DETECTIONS after the middle of May, this clearly is not inclusive of food chain tests.
YET we have seen VERY FEW new samples/results for milk, strawberries, more spinach, mushrooms and other products.
ONE milk sample is insufficient. And while the "expectation" is that the contamination will drop off, the news from Fukushima indicates that there are still ongoing largescale releases into the air and water. These are NOT explosios as in the early events, so they are not projected up into the air and jet stream as easily and may rain out over the Pacific, but it is IMPERATIVE, at least from my point of view - to ease our concerns given ALL the circumstances, that we urge and encourage BRAWM to continue and even increase the food chain samples and rain and grass and topsoil as well as ADDITIONAL, multiple source testing for milk, spinach, strawberries and other produce.
I do worry that BRAWM will relax their efforts (which I believe have been exceptional compared to all else available - yet still insufficient in terms of breadth of testing) because they do not expect additional plumes or accumulation based on too few tests.
When I noticed the uptick I wanted to say "wait a minute! All radionuclides are NOT decreasing!" But I did not want to be a thorn in BRAWM's side. I watch NHK pretty much several times a day and the issues with multiple units and new leaks and corium etc etc etc all indicate to me that releases are ongoing and that the risks of explosions or major releases continue (especially if the fuel rods are uncovered AND there are core reactor leaks AND the temperatures are extremely high).
I share your concerns, Rick, and do NOT trust TEPCO or the Japanese government or the industry to be honest about the risks or the amounts being released and HOW they are being released (for example todays online reports of night venting, which are hard to establish but possible and worrisome).
So I would just add to those in the chorus here encouraging BRAWM to keep testing as much as possible - TEST the food chain samples (I mean, lower levels in the air are excellent but NOW the risk is in the soil, grass, milk and food) and keep watch on the air and water and do NOT expect the results to show little or nothing or establish long term trends. Short term trends need longer term testing to establish them and REASSURE us that they are completely valid based on a SUSTAINED set of results for the food chain, rain, soil, etc..
If there are NO detectable levels of ANYTHING in the food chain for a wide variety of food chain samples (including soil, grass and rain) from various sources for say 3-4 weeks THEN I will be assured that we really are not seeing new accumulations and that the levels from Fukushima really are dropping off to near zero.
I hate to be a pain, But I am a parent and this is really critical info that ONLY BRAWM seems able to provide.
I noticed the increase too
Why does BRAWM say all activity is diminishing when clearly cesium is fluctuating and is higher in the last test?
Because therebis naturally
Because therebis naturally fluctuation around the main trend line. Look at the graphs.
Also, you can look at the CTBTO graphs for Cesium:
http://www.bfs.de/de/ion/imis/ctbto_aktivitaetskonzentrationen_caesium.gif
Assuming that the continued
Assuming that the continued release will go on for another year or more or maybe 2 or 3 years as it appears the reactors will take a LONG time to cool down....what is the potential health impact- after all - this would never habe been the case in any reactor accident in the history of humankind- continued small fluctuating release of I131, cesium etc... over a period of -who knows- 2 or 3 years?
Will we all have thyroid problems years from now?
Thank You!
Thank you BRAWM Team for the updated air results!
Continued Detection of Radionuclides
I apologize if this has already been addressed. However, I seem to recall that the BRAWM team anticipated that the various radionuclides for which data is being reported would not likely be detectable by the middle of April. I wanted to find out if Mark or anyone else on the BRAWM team is surprised that Iodine-131, Cesium-137, and Cesium-134, which was not detected in the April 30th through May 2nd sample but was detected in the latest sample, are still being detected at this point. Also, what do you believe is the most likely cause of the continued detection of these radionuclides at this time? Thank you in advance for your assistance!
Longer/Larger Samples
I'm not on the BRAWM team (although I feel like it at this point), but I guess their response *could* be that they aren't far off of their non-detectable statement. As they've stated, because of the declining levels in air, they are having to take larger samples just to get above their MDA. Through mid-April, they were taking air sample sizes of anywhere between 1.22 and 4.7 million liters. Beginning 4/22, it went to almost 8 million liters. The last sample was 1.54E+07 or 15 million liters. So, they are "chasing" the detections. If they had stayed at their original sample sizes, they probably wouldn't be detecting anything. The Calif.
Dept of Public Health stopped detecting I-131 in early April because of
their MDA.
new leaks and releases
It will be interesting to see if the new leaks and releases will have a continued impact here.
Interesting comment about the UCB being able to continue to monitor and get positive results, as compared to the EPA, because of detection levels. Makes me curious about the detection methods at WPI picking up other particles that UCB isn't showing. I won't understand the difference in measurements, but can appreciate that looking at things a bit differently can often bring different results.
What is WPI? Can you
What is WPI? Can you provide a link to their results? I checked the FAQ page but did not see anything. Thanks!
Yes
Thanks, Anonymous. You beat me to it.
I will also add that we now have better calculations for our detectability limits. Our original estimates were a bit higher, which led to the mid-April estimate.
Mark [BRAWM Team Member]
Thank you, Mark and
Thank you, Mark and Anonymous, for the responses. Do you have a revised estimate on when you think we may not see any of these radionuclides detected based on everything you know now? Also, does the recent news posted this evening that the fuel rods in the No. 1 reactor are fully exposed have any impact on this? Here is a link to an article posted on Bloomberg this evening: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-05-12/japan-suffers-setback-at-fukush.... Once again, thank you in advance for your assistance!
Extrapolating from our
Extrapolating from our recent data and current detection limits, all of the isotopes should be undetectable by around 5/12-5/15. There is already no I-131 in the sample we are currently counting (5/6-5/10).
Although news is coming out that fuel rods have been exposed, since the reactors have cooled down I would not expect any further major releases from Japan.
Mark [BRAWM Team Member]
Tepco and readings grain of salt
U base that statement on tepcos press releases or your own analysis " the reactors have cooled down"
U.S. Ready To Support
U.S. Ready To Support Fukushima Effort 'For Years': Roos
The administration of President Barack Obama "has made it clear from the very beginning that this is a multidimensional problem" that will go on for "years and even decades," Roos said in an interview this week.
http://e.nikkei.com/e/fr/tnks/Nni20110512D12JFA03.htm
"an interesting idea"
"Interesting" is one word for it......
"The ambassador showed enthusiasm for building a model city powered by a smart electric grid in the Tohoku region. He also called the possibility of Japan and the U.S. working together to design highly earthquake-resistant nuclear reactors 'an interesting idea.' "
And Chernobyl isn't "over" yet either. It's an ongoing problem that will need resources applied to it. Including building a new sarcophagus. So, this will go on for decades.
Good point
TEPCO cannot be trusted as an honest source of information . We simply cannot presume this disaster is over 100%.
Ishikawa of Japan has said all along fuel rods totally melted
I watched 5 video clips posted by someone else regarding Asahi TV and Michio Ishikawa of the Japan Nuclear Technology Institute. (the latter episodes discuss politics and distrust amongst residents – a bit off-topic). Here are the main takeaways:
· Ishikawa and several other specialists on the round table believe that 75-85% of the cores have melted, if not all, as opposed to the 55, 35, 30% figures released by the Japanese government for reactors 1, 2, 3, respectively.
· The figures released by the Japanese government are essentially bogus because nobody or no robot has entered the reactors and witness what is exactly going on. They are releasing percentages based on wishful calculations.
· Their primary objective should be to enter the reactor and assess the real damage. This would include removing concrete debris from the plant exterior and clearing space for heavy machinery to be installed. That way a human in a heavily-fortified capsule could propelled into the core. Many of the initiatives being planned and executed to channel radioactive water to outside tanks should be of secondary concern.
· Since the gas seeping into the atmosphere as a result of radioactive matter being cooled, radiation levels outside the plant are not as high as Chernobyl, where gas a result of a full nuclear meltdown seeped into the atmosphere.
· As the plant is water-cooled, uranium-235, plutonium, cobalt-60 continues to accumulate in the water tanks and subsequently released into the ocean. Approx. 1,000 to 10,000 times the safe dosage of cobalt-60 are being released from the reactors – it is uncertain what percentage of this is directly being pumped out to sea.
Another step backwards
In their May 6 update, the IAEA had:
"On 27 April TEPCO provided an update of the estimated percentage of core damage for Units 1, 2 and 3: for Unit 1 the core damage was revised from an estimated 70% to 55%......"
If "The water level is 1 meter (3.3 feet) below the base of the fuel assembly" and "Melted fuel has dropped to the bottom of the pressure vessel and is still being cooled" as the article says, I wonder if they will revise it to 100% core damage?
But, if workers can go into the reactor building, how much radiation is there and how much could make it to the US?
What a mess.....
Thank you BRAWM! Your
Thank you BRAWM! Your continued monitoring is so appreciated.