CTBTO page states nilu/zamg forecasts are proven to be 95% accurate
http://www.ctbto.org/press-centre/highlights/2011/fukushima-related-meas...
"... The CTBTO can also assist in predicting the global dispersion of radioactive material by using its atmospheric transport modelling (ATM) tool which has been developed in cooperation with the WMO. This method allows for the calculation of the dispersion of a given radionuclide emission, using meteorological data. This calculation can be performed as back tracking in order to identify the area where a radionuclide may have been released, calculated from the station where it was observed. In the case of Fukushima, where the point of release was known, the CTBTO applied forward ATM to predict where radionuclides would travel in the future.
Although the emissions were initially based on estimates only, they proved to be 95% correct as the radionuclides reached the stations mostly within hours of the time predicted. With information made available later by the IAEA on the release level of radioactive substances at the Fukushima power plant – the so-called source term – the CTBTO has been able to quantify and refine its global dispersion predictions."
Re: CTBTO page states
Re: CTBTO page states nilu/zamg forecasts are proven to be 95% accurate
Does it? I mean, are they talking about nile/zamg forecasts or about their own predictions?
click on the right
at the page where it says: Click for a regional dispersion simulation (Austrian Meteorological Service ZAMG).
so I am thinking they are endorsing the ZAMG model atleast?
I don't know. It gives that
I don't know. It gives that impression because you have the ZAMG picture near the text, but they don't specify which models are they referring to when they talk about 95% accuracy on the text. I'm also not sure if this accuracy is regarding concentration of emissions or just the expected time of arrival of those emissions. I'm feeling energetic today so I'm actually going to write them an email to see if they reply.
just to give you my
just to give you my experience, i find the NILU forecast accurate, when I was in Florida, I could sense stuffy air on those days that they predicted the xenon to be in Florida. It was very accurate for that purpose. Pretty amazing.
I think it's called recall bias
Or something like that - your knowledge of the issue influences how you interpret surroundings.
Yeah, there were also the
Yeah, there were also the ones that felt the exact same radiation exposure symptoms described on the wikipedia article about the Chernobyl disaster (metallic taste, needles and pins all over the skin). Hypochondria. I wonder what would have happened if the article had included "severe itching in and around the genital area" as one of the symptoms.
Wow, I haven't read the
Wow, I haven't read the wikipedia info about exposure symptoms from Chernobyl, but the pins and needles thing - that's EXACTLY what I felt for 2 days right at the time the initial plume hit my area. I also felt a slight tingling in my mouth, intermittent flushing of my face, nausea and headache during the March pass-over. Plus, a couple of days later I started coughing for almost 3 days. No fever. No phlegm. Just very deep, aching coughing and my lungs felt extremely heavy and tight. It went away as quickly as it started.
I have never felt anything like the pins and needles or strange face flushing before and have only felt an occasional "prickle" and no face flushing since. I'm not a hypochondriac, but I am sensitive to other things like toxic chemicals, EMFs and electricity - particularly fluorescent. I don't run to doctors - just note what's happening with my body and do what I need to do to take care of myself.
Now I'm going to go read wikipedia so I can feel validated. Thank you! And here's a thought: instead of making fun of physically sensitive people or calling us hypochondriacs, it might behoove some people to give us credit. We could be your warning signs that things are not as 'safe' as some factions would like you to believe. Just sayin'...
Well said !!!
The projection maps were accurate for Florida, too.
Had similar symptoms: smelled metal -- dry cough like I was trying to get something out of my lungs but it wouldn't come out -- heaviness in lungs when outside for awhile
Oh....dear.....heavens......
I probably shouldn't be laughing but I can't help myself. Even as someone who is taking certain precautions at keeping my family safer, even I can understand the ease at which hypochondria could set in. I don't think anyone doubts the accuracy regarding the paths of the NILU forcasts, but even they say they cannot predict the ACTUAL fallout. The path could still be the same but that doesn't necessarily predict the actual particulate that will be seen in any given area and in what concentration. I noticed early on that their data seems to coincide with small spikes on the RadNet site, but not at the extreme levels of concentration that was potentially predicted. Definitely something to keep an eye on, but obsessing about it will just drive one insane.
NILU
nilu plume map forecasts were pretty accurate both in timing and re overall predicted concentration levels with the last spike to hit my area in Los Angeles.