P. F. RICCI, Ph.D., LL.M.
Professor, University of Queensland (NRCET), and University of San Francisco

The questions that we begin to address are:

1. Should societal decisions for risks potentially occurring tens or hundred of thousand of years from now assume constant social and technical rates of progress?

2. Should limiting assumptions be allowed to satisfy precautionary actions?

3. Are currently available methods for analysis of uncertainty and variability applicable to societal decision-making over Methuselah’s time periods?

We develop initial answers to these questions because of the need for a theoretically and practically sound rationale for assuring very long-term compliance and integrity of engineered systems, and also to account for the ramifications that some managerial actions can have under Precautionary Principles. Our work is the assessment of assumptions upon which Methuselah-span environmental compliance is based. If these assumptions are arbitrary or limiting, they can increase social costs by reducing net social benefits. We conclude that reliable regulatory answers, designed to maintain long-term stewardship and minimize risks, can be achieved without making those assumptions.

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